Working Paper

A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation

Abstract: This paper proposes a theory of foreign reserves as macroprudential policy. We study an open economy model of financial crises, in which pecuniary externalities lead to over-borrowing, and show that by accumulating international reserves, the government can achieve the constrained-efficient allocation. The optimal reserve accumulation policy leans against the wind and significantly reduces the exposure to financial crises. The theory is consistent with the joint dynamics of private and official capital flows, both over time and in the cross section, and can quantitatively account for the recent upward trend in international reserves.

Keywords: Macroprudential policy; International reserves; Financial crises;

JEL Classification: E00; F00; G00;

https://doi.org/10.21034/wp.761

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2019-08-26

Number: 761

Pages: 31 pages