Improving econometric forecasts by using subperiod data
Abstract: The method proposed here includes two innovations which should improve the accuracy of econometric forecasting. First, it replaces the subjective, judgmental adjustments commonly used with a more formal, objective econometric procedure. Second, it includes a methodology for testing the usefulness of subperiod data which forecasters often inspect when choosing intercept adjustments. A sample application to the MIT-Penn-SSRC Model demonstrates that the procedure is both feasible and potentially helpful in the context of a large macroeconometric model.
File(s): File format is application/pdf http://minneapolisfed.org/research/common/pub_detail.cfm?pb_autonum_id=302
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Part of Series: Staff Report
Publication Date: 1977