Report

Specifying vector autoregressions for macroeconomic forecasting

Abstract: This paper describes a Bayesian specification procedure used to generate a vector autoregressive model for forecasting macroeconomic variables. The specification search is over parameters of a prior. This quasi-Bayesian approach is viewed as a flexible tool for constructing a filter which optimally extracts information about the future from a set of macroeconomic data. The procedure is applied to a set of data and a consistent improvement in forecasting performance is documented.

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Part of Series: Staff Report

Publication Date: 1984

Number: 92