Journal Article

No relief in sight for the U.S. economy

Abstract: For at least the next two years, the U.S. economy will grow more slowly than it has on average since World War II. This is the forecast of a Bayesian vector autoregression model developed and used by researchers at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank. The model's previous forecast?of a very weak start to the 1991?92 recovery?was remarkably accurate. Both forecasts are supported by evidence on long-term problems among consumers, in the commercial real estate industry, and at all levels of government. These problems will most likely constrain economic growth for years, although short spurts of strength could appear anytime, due to unpredictable special factors.

Keywords: economic conditions - United States; Business forecasting;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Part of Series: Quarterly Review

Publication Date: 1992

Volume: 16

Issue: Fall

Pages: 13-20