Journal Article
Are economic forecasts rational?
Abstract: This paper discusses at an undergraduate level how forecast rationality can be tested. It explains that forecasters should correctly use any relevant information they knew in making their predictions. It shows that forecast rationality can be tested by determining whether the forecasters' prediction errors are predictable. After addressing what data and methods can be used for testing rationality, the paper presents tests of the price-forecast rationality of individual professional forecasters. Unlike results of previous studies, the test results show that those forecasters' price predictions appear to be rational.
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Part of Series: Quarterly Review
Publication Date: 1989
Volume: 13
Issue: Spr
Pages: 26-33