Working Paper

Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women’s Employment

Abstract: Women’s labor force participation rose rapidly in the post-war period in the United States until the mid-1990s when it flattened out. I examine the impact of this change in trend in female labor supply on aggregate business cycles both empirically and with a quantitative real business cycle model that incorporates gender differences. I show that the rise in women’s participation played a substantial role in the Great Moderation, and not allowing for gender differences leads to incorrect inference on the sources of this phenomenon. I also show that the discontinued growth in female labor supply starting in the 1990s played a substantial role in the jobless recoveries following the 1990-1991, 2001 and 2007-2009 recessions. Moreover, it reduced aggregate hours and output growth during the late 1990s and mid 2000s expansions. I also find that the growth in women’s employment added substantially to TFP growth. These results suggest that continued sustained growth in women’s employment after the early 1990s would have significantly improved economic performance in the United States.

Keywords: Women's employment; Business cycles; Great moderation; Jobless recoveries;

JEL Classification: E17; E32; E37; J11; J21;

https://doi.org/10.21034/iwp.109

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Part of Series: Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers

Publication Date: 2025-01-08

Number: 109