Working Paper

Battles and Diseases in the U.S. Civil War

Abstract: Wars create short-term fluctuations in mortality. Belligerents might mitigate their own casualties with larger armies that hinder their opponent’s fighting ability. But diseases are frequent in wars and, thus, may reduce the benefits of larger armies. First, I analyze these competing mechanisms in a dynamic model of wartime attrition. Second, I calibrate the model using U.S. Civil War data and find that if the Union had fielded a 50%-larger army in 1861, Union casualties would have been marginally lower. The theory provides the insight for this quantitative result.

Keywords: war; attrition; diseases;

JEL Classification: E6; H56; N4;

https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2024.032

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2024-09

Number: 2024-032