Reconstructing the great recession

Boldrin, Michele; Garriga, Carlos; Peralta-Alva, Adrian; Sanchez, Juan M.

Working Paper

Reconstructing the great recession

Abstract: This paper evaluates the role of the construction sector in accounting for the performance of the U.S. economy before, during and after the Great Recession. We use input-output analysis to evaluate its linkages with the rest of the economy and measure the transmission of its demand shocks to the overall economy. Such effects are quantified by means of a dynamic multi-sector model parameterized to reproduce the boom-bust dynamics of employment in construction during 2000-13. The model suggests that the interlinkages account for a large share of the actual changes in aggregate employment and gross domestic product during the previous expansion, the recession and the subsequent recovery.

Keywords: Residential investment; multisector models; business cycle accounting;

JEL Classification: E22; E32; O41;