Working Paper Revision

The Dual Beveridge Curve

Abstract: This study introduces a dual vacancy model to explain the recent anomalous behavior of the Beveridge curve. The model proposes that job vacancies are partitioned into two categories, one for the unemployed and the other for job-to-job transitions, and that they function in separate markets. We estimate the monthly numbers of both job vacancy types for the U.S. economy and its subsectors starting from 2000 and find a significant surge in poaching vacancies in the mid-2010s. Our analysis indicates that the dual vacancy model provides a better fit to the data than traditional models. These findings suggest that a deceleration in worker demand can have a reduced impact on unemployment, with implications for monetary policy.

Keywords: Beveridge curve; vacancies; unemployment;

JEL Classification: E52; J23; J63; J64;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2023-02-17

Number: 2022-021

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