Working Paper

Demand-Supply imbalance during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of fiscal policy


Abstract: To mitigate the health and economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide engaged in massive fiscal support programs. We show that generous fiscal support is associated with an increase in the demand for consumption goods during the pandemic, but industrial production did not adjust quickly enough to meet the sharp increase in demand. This imbalance between supply and demand across countries contributed to high inflation. Our findings suggest a sizable role for fiscal policy in affecting price stability, above and beyond what a monetary authority can do.

Keywords: COVID-19; fiscal policy; inflation; supply chains;

JEL Classification: E2; E6; F4;

https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2022.019

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2022-09-02

Number: 2022-019