Working Paper

The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions


Abstract: We consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a two-year horizon.

https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2004.005

Status: Published in Economics Letters, March 2006, 90(3), pp. 339-5

Access Documents

File(s): File format is application/pdf https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2004/2004-005.pdf
Description: Full text

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2004

Number: 2004-005