Working Paper

Seasonal production smoothing

Abstract: Empirical tests of the production-smoothing hypothesis have yielded mixed results. In this paper, Donald Allen looks for, and finds evidence of, seasonal production smoothing in 15 out of 25 manufacturing series and 8 out of 10 retail series, using detrended seasonally unadjusted data. The equivalent test using seasonally adjusted data were negative for all 35 series. The results suggest that seasonally adjusted data obscure short-term production-smoothing.

Keywords: Business cycles; Productivity; Seasonal variations (Economics);

Status: Published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1999, 81(5), pp. 21-40

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 1999

Number: 1999-004