Working Paper
Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities
Abstract: Recent work suggests VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. The uncertainty inherent in any single representation of instability could mean that combining forecasts from a range of approaches will improve forecast accuracy. Focusing on models of U.S. output, prices, and interest rates, this paper examines the effectiveness of combining various models of instability in improving VAR forecasts made with real-time data.
Keywords: Econometric models; Economic forecasting;
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Part of Series: Working Papers
Publication Date: 2008
Number: 2008-030