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Immigration Restrictions and the Wages of Low-Skilled Labor: Evidence from the 1920s


Abstract: How do immigration restrictions affect the wages of low-skilled workers? We study the 1920s U.S. national-origins quotas, which abruptly and unevenly curtailed immigration from key source countries, generating sharp labor-supply shocks across local markets. Using newly digitized annual wage data for low-skilled laborers from 1910–1929, we show that wages rose faster in markets more dependent on restricted-origin immigrants, with effects emerging soon after 1920, intensifying through the mid-1920s, and persisting over time. Evidence on wage dynamics and mechanisms indicates that these gains reflect sustained labor scarcity rather than mechanical compositional changes.

JEL Classification: J15; J31; K37; N32; N42; R23;

https://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2022-12

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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Part of Series: Research Working Paper

Publication Date: 2026-07-06

Number: RWP 22-12

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