Implications of real-time data for forecasting and modeling expectations
Abstract: This note extends the analysis in Stark and Croushore (2001) with an emphasis on the importance of data vintage for survey forecasts and modeling expectations. For both of these types of empirical exercises, results suggest that the choice of latest available or real-time data is critical for variables subject to large level revisions, but almost irrelevant for variables subject to only small revisions. Other forecasting practices were examined, with some surprising results.
File(s): File format is application/pdf http://www.kansascityfed.org/PUBLICAT/RESWKPAP/pdf/rwp01-12.pdf
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Part of Series: Research Working Paper
Publication Date: 2001
Number: RWP 01-12