Journal Article

Coronavirus Dampens China’s First-Quarter GDP

Abstract: The novel coronavirus spread in China long before other countries, making China a potential early signal of the virus’s economic effects. Using a range of statistical models, we estimate that the coronavirus outbreak may have reduced China’s real GDP by an annualized rate of 32 percent, leading year-over-year growth to decline from 6 percent in 2019:Q4 to −3.8 percent in 2020:Q1.

Keywords: Coronavirus; COVID-19; Pandemic; China;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Part of Series: Economic Bulletin

Publication Date: 2020-04-06

Issue: April 6, 2020

Pages: 5