Journal Article

Assessing the Risk of Extreme Unemployment Outcomes

Abstract: Although the unemployment rate is at a historically low level, many policymakers are nevertheless watching projections for the future unemployment rate closely to evaluate the risk of extreme outcomes. We assess the probabilities of extreme outcomes in the near and medium term and find that the risk of unexpectedly high unemployment three years in the future has declined from its Great Recession peak and remained low over the past three years.

Keywords: Unemployment; Inflation;

JEL Classification: J6;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Part of Series: Economic Bulletin

Publication Date: 2019-08-28

Issue: Aug 28, 2019

Pages: 4