Do Stay-at-Home Orders Cause People to Stay at Home? Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Consumer Behavior

Alexander, Diane; Karger, Ezra

doi:10.21033/wp-2020-12

Working Paper Revision

Do Stay-at-Home Orders Cause People to Stay at Home? Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Consumer Behavior

Abstract: We link the county-level rollout of stay-at-home orders to anonymized cell phone records and consumer spending data. We document three patterns. First, stay-at-home orders caused people to stay at home: County-level measures of mobility declined 9–13% by the day after the stay-at-home order went into effect. Second, stay-at-home orders caused large reductions in spending in sectors associated with mobility: restaurants and retail stores. However, consumers sharply increased spending on food delivery services after orders went into effect. Third, while the response of residents to stay-at-home orders was fairly uniform across the country, there is substantial county-level heterogeneity in consumer behavior in the days before and after a stay-at-home order.

Keywords: Covid-19; stay-at-home orders; consumer spending; high-frequency data;

JEL Classification: A19; E21; I12; R20; R50;

https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2020-12