Working Paper
A Quantitative Analysis of Tariffs Across U.S. States
Abstract: We develop a quantitative framework to assess the cross-state implications of a U.S. trade policy change: a unilateral increase in the import tariff from 2% to 25% across all goods-producing sectors. Although the U.S. gains overall from the tariff increase, we find the impact differs starkly across locations. Changes in real consumption (welfare) range from as high as 3.8% in Wyoming to –0:3% in Florida, depending mainly on how exposed states are to differentially-impacted sectors. As a result, the "preferred" tariff rate varies greatly across states. Foreign retaliation in trade policy substantially reduces the welfare gains across states, while perpetuating the cross-state variation in those gains. The presence of internal trade frictions amplifies the welfare impacts of changes in trade policy.
Keywords: International trade; Interstate trade; Welfare gains from trade;
https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2021-08
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Part of Series: Working Paper Series
Publication Date: 2021-05-21
Number: WP-2021-08