Working Paper

China's export growth and U.S. trade policy

Abstract: This paper examines how US special import restrictions affect the growth of China's exports to countries other than the US. We estimate an empirical model of trade deflection and trade depression of roughly 5100 commodities exported by China to 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US trade restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third, non-US markets. Imposition of a US antidumping duty against China leads the growth rate of targeted commodities to increase approximately 25 percentage points. Our results on the deflection of Chinese exports vary across commodity, with the strongest evidence of trade deflection appearing in the steel, pharmaceuticals and manufactured goods industries.

Keywords: Exports; Trade;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Part of Series: Working Paper Series

Publication Date: 2004

Number: WP-04-28