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Explaining Variation in Real Wage Growth Over the Recent Expansion


Abstract: In August 2019 the unemployment rate was roughly 1 percentage point below the Congressional Budget Office?s (CBO) estimate of its long-run or natural rate, nearly matching the unemployment rate gap that developed during the historically tight labor market of the late 1990s. Nevertheless, real wage growth remains well below its pace of the late 1990s and even that of the milder 2000s expansion.

Keywords: wages; Unemployment;

https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-421

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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Part of Series: Chicago Fed Letter

Publication Date: 2019

Order Number: 421