Measuring the relationship between business reopenings, Covid-19, and consumer behavior

Alexander, Diane; Karger, Ezra; McFarland, Amanda

Newsletter

Measuring the relationship between business reopenings, Covid-19, and consumer behavior

Abstract: On March 17, 2020, seven counties in the San Francisco Bay Area put into place the first stay-at-home orders in the United States. In the following weeks, counties and states implemented a cascading sequence of stay-at-home orders, bans on public gatherings, shutdowns of nonessential businesses, and face mask mandates. But as small businesses began to face financial insolvency, states and counties began easing these restrictions. To evaluate the effectiveness of policies restricting mobility and business activity, it is important to document the effects of reopening businesses on public health and economic activity. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we measure the relationship between state-level reopenings of nonessential businesses and health outcomes (Covid-19 cases and deaths), mobility, and revenue at small and large retail businesses.

Keywords: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health; consumption; saving; Wealth;

JEL Classification: I18; E21;