Looking down the road with ALEX: Forecasting U.S. GDP
Abstract: In this article, we examine the recovery from the recession that began with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in the U.S. To do so, we present and discuss for the first time the results from a mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregressive model called ALEX. This model uses 107 monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity to forecast the near-term path of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP).
File format is application/pdf
Description: full text
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Part of Series: Chicago Fed Letter
Publication Date: 2020-10-23