Looking down the road with ALEX: Forecasting U.S. GDP

Brave, Scott A.; Butters, R. Andrew; Fogarty, Michael

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Looking down the road with ALEX: Forecasting U.S. GDP

Abstract: In this article, we examine the recovery from the recession that began with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in the U.S. To do so, we present and discuss for the first time the results from a mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregressive model called ALEX. This model uses 107 monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity to forecast the near-term path of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP).

Keywords: recession; gross domestic product; GDP; mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregression;

JEL Classification: C11; C32; C53;