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Which Leading Indicators Have Done Better at Signaling Past Recessions?
Abstract: In this article, I analyze a broad range of leading indicators?economic or financial data series that change in advance of the rest of the economy?to see which ones have done better at signaling past U.S. recessions.1 I also use these leading indicators to form a new index that outperforms existing leading indexes and the Treasury yield curve at signaling historical downturns.
Keywords: Economic indicators; recessions;
https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-425
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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Part of Series: Chicago Fed Letter
Publication Date: 2019
Order Number: 425