Journal Article
Real-time Taylor rules and the federal funds futures market
Abstract: This article compares movements in the federal funds rate from 1987 through 1997 with predictions from the federal funds market and a Taylor rule using unemployment and core CPI data. Although a Taylor rule using revised data does about as well as the futures market predictions, the best real-time predictions would have produced forecast errors about 50 percent larger than the futures data.
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Part of Series: Economic Perspectives
Publication Date: 1998
Volume: 22
Issue: Q III