Journal Article

Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories

Abstract: The author surveys the statistical evidence on average stock return and the economic theories that try to explain it. The statistical evidence suggests a period of low returns, followed by a slow reversion to a high long-term average. However, that evidence is quite uncertain. Standard economics predicts tiny stock returns. The author surveys new economic models that predict high returns, but by fundamentally changing the description of stock market risk. He warns that a low forecast for stock returns does not mean one should sell.

Keywords: Stocks; Risk;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Part of Series: Economic Perspectives

Publication Date: 1997

Volume: 21

Issue: Nov

Pages: 3-37