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Journal Article

Forecasting inflation and the Great Recession


Abstract: This article shows how the recovery of inflation in 2009-10 occurred precisely at the only time (since 1985) the models would predict disinflation, i.e., inflation went up when the models said it should go down.

Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Recessions;

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File(s): https://www.chicagofed.org/-/media/publications/economic-perspectives/2013/3q2013-part1-bassetto-messer-ostrowski-pdf.pdf

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Part of Series: Economic Perspectives

Publication Date: 2013

Volume: 37

Issue: Q III