When can we forecast inflation?

Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Liu, Chin Te; Zhou, Ruilin

Journal Article

When can we forecast inflation?

Abstract: This article reassesses recent work that has challenged the usefulness of inflation forecasts. The authors find that inflation forecasts were informative in 1977-84 and 1993-2000, but less informative in 1985-92. They also find that standard forecasting models, while generally poor at forecasting the magnitude of inflation, are good at forecasting the direction of change of inflation.

Keywords: Inflation (Finance); Phillips curve;