New Evidence on the US Excess Return on Foreign Portfolios

Bertaut, Carol C.; Curcuru, Stephanie E.; Faia, Ester; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier

doi:10.17016/IFDP.2024.1398

Working Paper

New Evidence on the US Excess Return on Foreign Portfolios

Abstract: We provide new estimates of the return on US external claims and liabilities using confidential, high-quality, security-level data. The excess return is positive on average, since claims are tilted toward higher-return equities. The excess return is large and positive in normal times but large and negative during global crises, reflecting the global insurance role of the US external balance sheet. Controlling for issuer's nationality, we find that US investors have a larger exposure to equity issued by Asia-headquartered corporations than reported in the aggregate statistics. Finally, equity portfolios are concentrated in 'superstar' firms, but for US liabilities foreign holdings are less concentrated than the overall market.

Keywords: Capital flows; Cross-border investment; Exorbitant privilege;

JEL Classification: F30; F21; F32;

https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2024.1398