Working Paper

Economic Forecasting in Theory and Practice : An Interview with David F. Hendry

Abstract: David Hendry has made major contributions to many areas of economic forecasting. He has developed a taxonomy of forecast errors and a theory of unpredictability that have yielded valuable insights into the nature of forecasting. He has also provided new perspectives on many existing forecast techniques, including mean square forecast errors, add factors, leading indicators, pooling of forecasts, and multi-step estimation. In addition, David has developed new forecast tools, such as forecast encompassing; and he has improved existing ones, such as nowcasting and robustification to breaks. This interview for the International Journal of Forecasting explores David Hendry?s research on forecasting.

Keywords: Encompassing; Equilibrium correction models; Error correction; Evaluation; Exogeneity; Forecasting; Modeling; Nowcasting; Parameter constancy; Robustification; Structural breaks;

JEL Classification: C53;

https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2016.1184

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: International Finance Discussion Papers

Publication Date: 2016-11

Number: 1184

Pages: 40 pages