Does Smooth Ambiguity Matter for Asset Pricing?

Gallant, A. Ronald; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad; Liu, Hening

doi:10.17016/IFDP.2018.1221

Working Paper

Does Smooth Ambiguity Matter for Asset Pricing?

Abstract: We use the Bayesian method introduced by Gallant and McCulloch (2009) to estimate consumption-based asset pricing models featuring smooth ambiguity preferences. We rely on semi-nonparametric estimation of a flexible auxiliary model in our structural estimation. Based on the market and aggregate consumption data, our estimation provides statistical support for asset pricing models with smooth ambiguity. Statistical model comparison shows that models with ambiguity, learning and time-varying volatility are preferred to the long-run risk model. We analyze asset pricing implications of the estimated models.

Keywords: Ambiguity; Bayesian estimation; equity premiums; Markov-switching; long-run risks;

JEL Classification: C61; D81; G11; G12;

https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2018.1221