Working Paper

The power of cointegration tests


Abstract: A cointegration test statistic based upon estimation of an error correction model can be approximately normally distributed when no cointegration is present. By contrast, the equivalent Dickey-Fuller statistic applied to residuals from a static relationship has a non-standard asymptotic distribution. When cointegration exists, the error-correction test generally is more powerful than the Dickey-Fuller test. These differences arise because the latter imposes a possibly invalid common factor restriction. The issue is general and has ramifications for system-based cointegration tests. Monte Carlo analysis and an empirical study of U.K. money demand demonstrate the differences in power.

Keywords: Econometrics;

Access Documents

File(s): File format is application/pdf http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1992/431/ifdp431.pdf

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: International Finance Discussion Papers

Publication Date: 1992

Number: 431