Abstract: This note shows forward term spreads provide little information about recessions more than a couple years ahead. In fact, forward term spreads are essentially equivalent to today's term spreads in their ability to accurately predict further-ahead recessions.
File(s): File format is text/html https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/unpredictable-recessions-20210702.htm
Part of Series: FEDS Notes
Publication Date: 2021-07-02