Discussion Paper
(Don't Fear) The Yield Curve
Abstract: In this note, we show that, for predicting recessions, such measures of a "long-term spread"--the spread in yields between a far-off maturity such as 10 years and a shorter maturity such as 1 or 2 years--are statistically dominated by a more economically intuitive alternative, a "near-term forward spread."
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2212
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Part of Series: FEDS Notes
Publication Date: 2018-06-28
Number: 2018-06-28