Fed in Print
All Title Author Abstract
Bank Series Content Type Author JEL Classification

Discussion Paper

Commodity terms of trade uncertainty and economic activity in emerging economies


Abstract: It has been extensively documented that medium and low-income countries tend to experience substantially more volatile business cycles than their more developed counterparts. Given their reliance on commodities, emerging economies are highly exposed to fluctuations in their terms of trade (the price of a country's export prices relative to its import prices). This note seeks to document and quantify the effects of time-varying uncertainty of commodity terms of trade on aggregate economic activity in developing countries.

https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3837

Access Documents

File(s): File format is text/html https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/commodity-terms-of-trade-uncertainty-and-economic-activity-in-emerging-economies-20250707.html

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: FEDS Notes

Publication Date: 2025-07-07

Number: 2025-07-07-3