Working Paper

What Does the Beveridge Curve Tell Us about the Likelihood of Soft Landings?

Abstract: Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing in the labor market should take into account the current state of the labor market and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment. We use a simple model of the Beveridge curve to investigate what conditions are necessary for a soft landing in the labor market to occur and what the likelihood of these conditions was during the height of the pandemic-period inflation. We find that a soft landing was a plausible outcome at that time. Since then, the evolution of the labor market has borne out that prediction.

Keywords: Labor market; Unemployment; Soft landing; Beveridge curve;

JEL Classification: J64; J63; E24;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.073

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Publication Date: 2024-09-20

Number: 2024-073