Recovery of 1933

Jacobson, Margaret M.; Leeper, Eric M.; Preston, Bruce

doi:10.17016/FEDS.2023.032

Working Paper

Recovery of 1933

Abstract: When Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard in April 1933, he converted government debt from a tax-backed claim to gold to a claim to dollars, opening the door to unbacked fiscal expansion. Roosevelt followed a state-contingent fiscal rule that ran nominal-debt-financed primary deficits until the price level rose and economic activity recovered. Theory suggests that government spending multipliers can be substantially larger when fiscal expansions are unbacked than when they are tax-backed. VAR estimates using data on "emergency" unbacked spending and "ordinary" backed spending confirm this prediction and find that primary deficits made quantitatively important contributions to raising both the price level and real GNP after 1933. VAR evidence does not support the conventional monetary explanation that gold revaluation and gold inflows, which raised the monetary base, drove the recovery independently of fiscal actions.

Keywords: Great depression; Monetary-fiscal interactions; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Government debt;

JEL Classification: E31; E52; E62; E63; N12;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2023.032