Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Effects of COVID-19: A Real-time Analysis

RePEc Short ID: pen96
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5207-1930

Bekaert, Geert; Engstrom, Eric; Ermolov, Andrey

doi:10.17016/FEDS.2020.049

Working Paper

Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Effects of COVID-19: A Real-time Analysis

Abstract: We extract aggregate demand and supply shocks for the US economy from real-time survey data on inflation and real GDP growth using a novel identification scheme. Our approach exploits non-Gaussian features of macroeconomic forecast revisions and imposes minimal theoretical assumptions. After verifying that our results for U.S. post-World War II business cycle fluctuations are largely in line with the prevailing consensus, we proceed to study output and price fluctuations during the COVID-19 pandemic. We attribute two thirds of the decline in 2020:Q1 GDP to a negative shock to aggregate demand. In contrast, regarding the staggeringly large decline in GDP in 2020:Q2, we estimate two thirds of this shock was due to a reduction in aggregate supply. Statistical analysis suggests a slow recovery due to a persistent effects of the supply shock, but surveys suggest a somewhat faster rebound with a recovery in aggregate supply leading the way.

Keywords: Business cycles; COVID-19; Macroeconomic volatility; ;

JEL Classification: E31; E32; E43; E44;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.049