Working Paper

Zeroing in on the Expected Returns of Anomalies


Abstract: We zero in on the expected returns of long-short portfolios based on 120 stock market anomalies by accounting for (1) effective bid-ask spreads, (2) post-publication effects, and (3) the modern era of trading technology that began in the early 2000s. Net of these effects, the average anomaly's expected return is a measly 8 bps per month. The strongest anomalies return only 10-20 bps after accounting for data-mining with either out-of-sample tests or empirical Bayesian methods. Expected returns are negligible despite cost optimizations that produce impressive net returns in-sample and the omission of additional trading costs like price impact.

Keywords: Trading costs; Mispricing; Stock return anomalies; Anomaly zoo;

JEL Classification: G10; G11; G12; G14;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.039

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Publication Date: 2020-05-22

Number: 2020-039