Working Paper

Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities

Abstract: This paper proposes a method for constructing a volatility risk premium, or investor risk aversion, index. The method is intuitive and simple to implement, relying on the sample moments of the recently popularized model-free realized and option-implied volatility measures. A small-scale Monte Carlo experiment suggests that the procedure works well in practice. Implementing the procedure with actual S&P 500 option-implied volatilities and high-frequency five-minute-based realized volatilities results in significant temporal dependencies in the estimated stochastic volatility risk premium, which we in turn relate to a set of underlying macro-finance state variables. We also find that the extracted volatility risk premium helps predict future stock market returns.

Keywords: Stochastic analysis; Risk; Uncertainty;

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Publication Date: 2004

Number: 2004-56