Working Paper

Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Predictability?


Abstract: Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction regressions. We show that such a procedure gives rise to spurious evidence of predictive power. A simulation study demonstrates that even when using this technique on two independent series, estimates and diagnostic statistics suggest a high degree of predictability of the dependent variable. We apply a simple modification of the long-horizon regression due to Jegadeesh (1991), which may provide more accurate inferences for researchers interested in comparing short and long-run predictability of U.S. dollar exchange rates.

Keywords: Spurious; inference; long-run;

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Number: 1996-39

Pages: 17 pages