Sectoral Dynamics and Business Cycles
Abstract: I construct an index of sectoral dynamics to characterize changes in the sectoral composition of economic activity. There is evidence of asymmetry in different phases of business cycles with recessions being associated with larger changes in sectoral composition than expansions. I find that the correlation between dynamics in sectoral employment and aggregate output has weakened since the 1990s. Also, sectoral changes appear to be smaller and spread across more sectors, while their contribution to aggregate volatility has been increasing. I also perform a simulation exercise and replicate these documented facts. The results suggest that shifts in the sectoral composition of the economy likely contribute to the formation of business cycles. Also the duration of recessions implied by the impulse response functions from a VAR model of sectoral dynamics and aggregate output growth matches the duration of recessions observed in the data.
File(s): File format is application/pdf http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2016/files/2016066pap.pdf
Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Publication Date: 2016-07-20
Pages: 31 pages