Are Survey Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Central Bank Communication and News

RePEc Short ID: pdr100
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7989-6847

Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan

Working Paper

Are Survey Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Central Bank Communication and News

Abstract: In this paper we analyze whether central bank communication can facilitate the understanding of key economic concepts. Using survey data for consumers and professionals, we calculate how many of them have expectations consistent with the Fisher Equation, the Taylor rule and the Phillips curve and test, by accounting for three different communication channels, whether central banks can influence those. A substantial share of participants has expectations consistent with the Fisher equation, followed by the Taylor rule and the Phillips curve. We show that having theory-consistent expectations is beneficial, as it improves the forecast accuracy. Furthermore, consistency is time varying. Exploring this time variation, we provide evidence that central bank communication as well as news on monetary policy can facilitate the understanding of those concepts and thereby improve the efficacy of monetary policy.

Keywords: Macroeconomic expectations; central bank communications; consumer forecast accuracy; macroeconomic literacy; monetary news; survey microdata;

JEL Classification: C25; D84; E31; E52; E58;