Working Paper

News versus Sentiment : Predicting Stock Returns from News Stories


Abstract: This paper uses a dataset of more than 900,000 news stories to test whether news can predict stock returns. We measure sentiment with a proprietary Thomson-Reuters neural network. We find that daily news predicts stock returns for only 1 to 2 days, confirming previous research. Weekly news, however, predicts stock returns for one quarter. Positive news stories increase stock returns quickly, but negative stories have a long delayed reaction. Much of the delayed response to news occurs around the subsequent earnings announcement.

Keywords: News; Text Analysis;

JEL Classification: G12; G14;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.048

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Publication Date: 2016-06

Number: 2016-048

Pages: 35 pages