Working Paper

Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update

Abstract: We update Rose and Spiegel (2010a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the \"Great Recession\" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income and looser credit market regulation seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Part of Series: Working Paper Series

Publication Date: 2011

Number: 2011-02