Term Structure Analysis with Big Data

Andreasen, Martin M.; Christensen, Jens H. E.; Rudebusch, Glenn D.

Working Paper

Term Structure Analysis with Big Data

Abstract: Analysis of the term structure of interest rates almost always takes a two-step approach. First, actual bond prices are summarized by interpolated synthetic zero-coupon yields, and second, a small set of these yields are used as the source data for further empirical examination. In contrast, we consider the advantages of a one-step approach that directly analyzes the universe of bond prices. To illustrate the feasibility and desirability of the onestep approach, we compare arbitrage-free dynamic term structure models estimated using both approaches. We also provide a simulation study showing that a one-step approach can extract the information in large panels of bond prices and avoid any arbitrary noise introduced from a first-stage interpolation of yields.

JEL Classification: C55; C58; G12; G17;