ChatMacro: Evaluating Inflation Forecasts of Generative AI

Alam, M.Jahangir; Boyle, Shane; Li, Huiyu; Sekhposyan, Tatevik

doi:10.24148/wp2026-04

Working Paper

ChatMacro: Evaluating Inflation Forecasts of Generative AI

Abstract: Recent research suggests that generic large language models (LLMs) can match the accuracy of traditional methods when forecasting macroeconomic variables in pseudo out-of-sample settings generated via prompts. This paper assesses the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of LLMs by eliciting real-time forecasts of U.S. inflation from ChatGPT. We find that out-of-sample predictions are largely inaccurate and stale, even though forecasts generated in pseudo out-of-sample environments are comparable to existing benchmarks. Our results underscore the importance of out-of-sample benchmarking for LLM predictions.

JEL Classification: C45; E31; E37;

https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2026-04