Underlying Trends in the U.S. Neutral Interest Rate

Carvalho, Carlos; Ferrero, Andrea; Mazin, Felipe; Nechio, Fernanda

Journal Article

Underlying Trends in the U.S. Neutral Interest Rate

Abstract: After a prolonged decline, U.S. inflation-adjusted interest rates have increased somewhat since the pandemic—possibly implying a higher new normal. As central banks attempt to tame the post-pandemic inflationary bout, whether real rates will fall back closer to pre-pandemic levels will ultimately depend on the trends in their long-term underlying determinants. Estimates suggest that the pre-pandemic downward pressures from global factors and from U.S. population aging have faded, while fiscal conditions continue to put upward pressure on U.S. real rates.