Does Monetary Policy Have Long-Run Effects?

Jordà, Òscar; Singh, Sanjay R.; Taylor, Alan M.

Journal Article

Does Monetary Policy Have Long-Run Effects?

Abstract: Monetary policy is often regarded as having only temporary effects on the economy, moderating the expansions and contractions that make up the business cycle. However, it is possible for monetary policy to affect an economy’s long-run trajectory. Analyzing cross-country data for a set of large national economies since 1900 suggests that tight monetary policy can reduce potential output even after a decade. By contrast, loose monetary policy does not appear to raise long-run potential. Such effects may be important for assessing the preferred stance of monetary policy.

Keywords: monetary policy; long-term effects; economies;