How Much Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation?

Shapiro, Adam Hale

Journal Article

How Much Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation?

Abstract: Tight labor markets have raised concerns about the role of labor costs in persistently high inflation readings. Policymakers are paying particular attention to nonhousing services inflation, which is considered most closely linked to wages. Analysis shows that higher labor costs are passed along to customers in the form of higher nonhousing services prices, however the effect on overall inflation is very small. Labor-cost growth has no meaningful effect on goods or housing services inflation. Overall, labor-cost growth is responsible for only about 0.1 percentage point of recent core PCE inflation.

Keywords: labor markets; labor costs; inflation;